I am nobody. But I’m going to offer my opinion on the war in Ukraine anyway. My entire of set of qualifications consists of being a lifelong reader, having done my minimum amount of service in the US Army in the 80s (GI Bill, baby), having lived and travelled in Russia (and the Ukraine) for the better part of 14 years and (possibly most relevant) having played and even mastered basically the best of every tactical or strategic war-game of its era from checkers, through the classics from Avalon Hill to Halo or XCOM. Here’s what I see coming.

CCCP Tanks

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The Russian army is not going to be able to encircle and capture (let alone hold) Kyiv, Kharkiv, or any other major city (I’ll come to Mariupol in a minute) and will not be able to sustain unthreatened supply lines from the east (Sumy) through to Kyiv to maintain an attacking army from that direction. As for the attack line from the north/west, that will also be blunted by the Ukrainian ground forces, but sustaining it in offence or defence should be more possible for Russia, provided they continue to get assistance from Belarus. I don’t believe Russia will risk an amphibious assault on Odesa unless they can take and hold a crossing on the Southern Bug River, which I also don’t think they can, and it appears they also wont hold whatever portion of Kherson they currently hold. The Battle for Mykolaiv will be an epic if it occurs, but I don’t think we are headed there.

The supporters of the Ukraine are winning the war of information at present. The funny-because-its-true memes and Zelensky speaking directly to the Russian people and troops is getting through in some measure. I can still ring up most anyone I want in Russia and the Ukraine and talk on a more secure line than most Russian generals apparently. The low-grade garbage being pumped out by Russian backers just doesn’t compare in either factualness or pointedness. Yes, at present, more than 50% of the Russian population still is in favour of “Z” war, but they have had 12 years of being steeped in propaganda that makes Fox News look like fascist high school rag. Average Russians, in my experience are both (a) pretty smart and (b) don’t trust their government with a fervour that comes from the Soviet Union. Given the losses in the thousands that are already being reported in the small towns across Russia, the fact that they still have some Internet and access to fact based reporting (via VPN), the Russian population will turn against Putin’s war more rapidly than we might expect. Here’s hoping it’s faster than a British tabloid on their soccer team once he is seen as a loser. He’s already afraid of his population enough that they have BTR on the streets to prevent protests in as far away as Yuzhno.

BTR

But he’s cunning. He was head of the KGB in East Germany, then the Soviet Union, and was (at one point in time at least) a reader of history. So, I think that Putin is scratching around now for what will appear to be a win that he can try to sell to his population prior to assassination or another revolution. [On a side note, wouldn’t it be poetic justice to see that motherfucker be poisoned, given his form in killing his adversaries (often with Poison). Russians are the gold medal holders for poisoning, I can tell you.] I think Putin’s prime objective at present is to take Mariupol and to seal a land bridge between the Russia and Crimea. If he does that, they then sell the fact that they have wiped out the Nazis (Azov Battalion) in their hometown, and secured the “russified” portion of the Ukraine east of the Dnipro River. Then he will try to negotiate.

But this is why Mariupol is both key to Putin, and will also not be completely taken. It’s going to be one of the most destructive and deadly sieges since Stalingrad, but also take way too long, require heavy Russian losses and hold all over their attention while Ukraine then can attempt successful strategic recapture of territory in the north. From what I read, citizens that remain are already preparing the ‘Stalingrad Academy’ for the invaders, both in Mariupol and Odesa. We should do all we can quietly to ensure a Ukrainian success in Mariupol, as well as relief for the heros who live and die there. My sincerest apologies to the population of the Ukraine I am condemning to death with my writing the paragraphs above.

Win or lose in Mariupol, it will be time for negotiations with Putin, so how should that go:

Vova Meme

First off, fuck an off ramp for Putin. In my world, this sort of evil dictatorial warfare on ones neighbour is not met with acceptance of any short term gains on the battlefield by the aggressor. If I am the Ukraine, or even the majority of the reasonable world of nation states, I want to see return of stolen territory and reparations for the infrastructure and civilian losses sustained in this lie of a war (threat from NATO or de-nazification, pffft!) and by this I mean Donetsk, Luhansk and yes even the Crimea (provided I can show in the international criminal court following the cessation of hostilities that the little green men after a false-flag operation there was illegal annexation by Russia, and I think I can). So, he’s gonna need to agree to the decision of the ICC as part of the settlement. If not, continue to isolate Russia diplomatically and economically and arm the Ukraine so they can take their own lands back. After its all over, lets have some truly free and fair elections in all the territories above and just see what’s in the final Ukraine and what’s part of Russia, how about that?
The world should drive an incredibly hard bargain with Putin that requires all the above, and let’s the Ukraine do whatever the fuck it wants in the future as an independent nation. But require nothing unreasonable. We don’t require a regime change in Russia, as that is for the Russians to decide, but we reserve the right to continue to ostracise the current government until it changes. No dealings with Putin into the future.
But we also need one thing more. We need a Marshall Plan for the Ukraine and for Russia once it’s all over. The Ukraine obviously needs a serious rebuild of infrastructure, heavy humanitarian support and also setup of a good sustainable bureaucracy for liberal democracy. Russia is going to need re-integration into the word financial and economic systems and a huge amount of development of their sustainable bureaucracy for liberal democracy. Had we engaged with Russia better in the first place after the fall of the Soviet Union, they’d currently be led by a coalition government from the “Apple” party in coalition with some technocrats and greens and the communists would still have a nub of 2 seats in the duma just as a reminder of what a fucking joke they are at governing. Instead, they have a one-party state that is as bad and corrupt as late stage Yeltsinism. So let’s fix that up this time. Then, you know what, I don’t give a fuck if in 20 years Russia or the Ukraine agrees with my country on everything or even most things, as long as it’s a representative liberal democracy. Real success in the world isn’t about control, it’s about self control.
I also have opinions on how to deal with a Russian nuclear threat, but that’s for later.
The Russian army is not going to be able to encircle and capture (let alone hold) Kyiv, Kharkiv, or any other major city (I’ll come to Mariupol in a minute) and will not be able to sustain unthreatened supply lines from the east (Sumy) through to Kyiv to maintain an attacking army from that direction. As for the attack line from the north/west, that will also be blunted by the Ukrainian ground forces, but sustaining it in offence or defence should be more possible for Russia, provided they continue to get assistance from Belarus. I don’t believe Russia will risk an amphibious assault on Odesa unless they can take and hold a crossing on the Southern Bug River, which I also don’t think they can, and it appears they also wont hold whatever portion of Kherson they currently hold. The Battle for Mykolaiv will be an epic if it occurs, but I don’t think we are headed there.
The supporters of the Ukraine are winning the war of information at present. The funny-because-its-true memes and Zelensky speaking directly to the Russian people and troops is getting through in some measure. I can still ring up most anyone I want in Russia and the Ukraine and talk on a more secure line than most Russian generals apparently. The low-grade garbage being pumped out by Russian backers just doesn’t compare in either factualness or pointedness. Yes, at present, more than 50% of the Russian population still is in favour of “Z” war, but they have had 12 years of being steeped in propaganda that makes Fox News look like fascist high school rag. Average Russians, in my experience are both (a) pretty smart and (b) don’t trust their government with a fervour that comes from the Soviet Union. Given the losses in the thousands that are already being reported in the small towns across Russia, the fact that they still have some Internet and access to fact based reporting (via VPN), the Russian population will turn against Putin’s war more rapidly than we might expect. Here’s hoping it’s faster than a British tabloid on their soccer team once he is seen as a loser. He’s already afraid of his population enough that they have BTR on the streets to prevent protests in as far away as Yuzhno